Apple the TV Stuido

I hope this is bunk.

As if Apple didn’t already have enough on it’s plate.  But more importantly, this would be a BIG departure from their core competency which is hardware and software.  Apple builds platforms on which others can deliver content. To me, this is no different than if Apple decided to start making game apps.  It’s too far from the core and would be a big signal that the company is losing it’s way.

It’s on par to me of saying, it’s okay to make a “News” app, but when you start writing the articles too, you’ve gone too far.  

I hope it’s bunk.  I know it’s working for Amazon, but Amazon SUCKS at hardware and software’s marginal at best.  Don’t go there, Apple.  Keep the focus.  Make this one of the 1000s of “no’s” instead of a “yes."

Give it More Time

Bold prediction- I don’t think the  Watch is going to be on an annual refresh cycle.

This is one of those “lessons learned” from the iPad.  A premium-priced device that’s essentially an accessory has a very hard time selling up a lot of units year-over-year.  The iPhone is an anomaly that’s driven by contracts and subsidies.  The iPad has followed more closely to the Mac in terms of upgrade cycles.  And I think the Watch has the same roadmap.

Apple’s mistake with the iPad was putting it on an annual refresh cycle that gave analysts a reason to judge it’s year-over-year performance on-par with iPhones.  That’s a bad measuring stick for the Watch.  Like the iPad, it’s much more expensive to consumers and thus the ability to buy a new one each year is much lower.  Additionally, I think the limited functions of the Watch will mean that older models will be “good enough” for much longer.

Apple would be smart to not set expectations for the Watch’s hardware on an annual cycle.  Software, fine, but limit the hardware releases to perhaps every-other year.  Give owners more time enjoy the current model and thus more time to feel “old” about it when the next one comes along.  

Additionally, given how difficult and large the production requirements for this product are, I have to think you need more time between re-toolings to get your profitability back out.  And something tells me there won’t be much down-market demand for “last-year’s” Watch to make up the margins the way there is in phones.

In the meantime, a stream of new bands each year would keep the product feeling fresh and make great profits for Apple.

Bottom line, I won’t be surprised if we don’t hear about the Watch again until next fall.  But that’s just my opinion...

Google's New Logo

Yeah… not sure if I like this one.

This trend towards overly flat design may have just jumped the shark.  For example, that lowercase “g” in the original logo in serif script is used in several places as a stand-in for the whole logo (i.e., the iOS Google Search app).  Will that be changing?  I should, but the sans-serif version will look completely generic.

Logo changes are a dangerous move; especially when you have one of the most recognized brands in the world.  Google’s logo may just be the most viewed corporate logo of them all.  You risk putting people off and, if nothing else, you invite a tremendous amount of criticism.

This to me was a case of, “it ain’t broke, why fix it?” but at the least it’s bold move.

For my two cents, it looks less-refined and more childish and frankly a step backwards.

But that’s just my opinion...

Obligatory Apple Predictions Post

My guesses for September 9th.  Sorted by device, listed from most likely, to wildest...

iPhones

• Hardware refreshes with 6s and 6s Plus.  Same screen sizes.
• New processors (A9, M9)
• Upgraded cameras.  Better sensor, bump to 12MP.  4k video is a maybe in my book (tough on space and battery life, but might pair nicely with an upgraded  TV?).  Also, might get optical stabilization on the 6s as well as the 6s Plus.  Software-based front-facing flash is 50/50.  Don’t expect to see the results of the Sony knowledge grab yet- that will likely wait for the 7.
• Force Touch screens.  The biggest questions here will be around how the software integrates it.  Open API for developers?  Or system-owned actions?  I favor the latter, for the record, as a small number of consistent gestures would be best for UI and adoption.  My picks would be A) “Clear All” on the Notifications screen, B) Activate Camera from the Lock Screen [much faster than the swipe up and no more mis-gestured control center] C) App Switching from anywhere inside the OS.
• 1, maybe 2 new colors (Pink seems to be most likely, but whatever happened to that Rose Gold rumor?).  Also- I REALLY want the “space grey” to be the same as the Sport Watch color.
• OLED screens.  Don’t ask me why, but put this on the way out in left-field column.

 TV

• New Hardware.  Upgraded to at least the A7 (but could be A8 or A9)  Larger, but similar form factor.  802.11AC routing.  Plastic or aluminum is a 50/50 guess.
• New remote.  Includes touch screen, microphone, and multi-axis sensors.
• New software.  Includes SDK for developers and APIs for HomeKit.
• Unified search with Siri.  Building on the same iOS API for “deep linking” I think this is a “must-do” feature for a TV platform today.
• Always-on listening.  For HomeKit integration especially, the ability to say “Hey Siri” anytime in my house and activate a response.  The challenge here is to not have multiple devices waking up at once (or if they do, make sure handoff syncs them so I get only 1 response).
• Multiple colors.  Lots of people thinking this will be a given in the new scheme of things (Space Grey, Gold, Silver) but I doubt it.  I’m putting this in the “eh maybe” end because I think most likely you’ll get any color you want, as long as it’s black.

Miscellaneous

• New  Watch Bands.  These have proven wildly successful and super profitable.  And we know there are lots of colors floating around that haven’t been given wide-release yet.  Project RED is likely and a bunch more.  Just in-time for the holidays and to tide us all over until the next big hardware release. (which I think could take a while...)
• AirPort Refresh.  Makes sense to me along side a new  TV and might even serve as an additional microphone for house-wide “Hey Siri” integration.

And finally, my “not gonna happen” list...

• Apple Retail Refresh.  Not before the holidays.  I think they'll wait for next spring and then have the summer for remodels.
• iPad or iMac.  I’m holding out for a separate event all about bigger devices in October. New iPads, maybe the rumored “iPad Pro” and my big wish-list item; a 4k Retina iMac at 21”.
• New  Watch.  I don’t think Apple is going to go for an annual refresh here.  Call it lessons learned from iPad, but I don’t think they want to be on an annual cycle in this new category.  Watch bands- yes.  New Watch- not for a while...
• Cars.  Nope.  Not yet.  Maybe in a couple years...

One more thing...

• My wildest, most crazy prediction yet- an Apple made  Pay terminal.  Yes, they got big buy-in from Square at WWDC.  But if Apple really wants  Pay to take off, they HAVE to get more retailers using it.  Banks=good.  Retailers= Critical.  What if Apple made a fantastic and easy to use  Pay reader that could quickly hook up with any existing register software?  No change in payments processor, no new POS terminals. Just plug and play?  It’s crazy, but I’d love to see it happen.

Okay, there you go.  I’m allowed to keep my tech blogger card for 6 more months now.  Let’s see what happens in just one more week!